We believe that inflation versus deflation is underappreciated as a determinant of sector selection success. In the past century, stocks and commodities have alternated leadership in regular cycles averaging 18 years. During commodity deflation, stocks rose 11.6% per year, but during inflation stocks rose 3.4% per year. Our research suggests a new 18 year stock cycle (aka Secular Bull Market) began May 2013. (Barry Bannister, Equity Research)
